Pascal's wager

Rare is the individual who is a brilliant mathematician and a brilliant philosopher, but Blaise Pascal was such a man. Pascal was a pioneer in the development of probability theory (if you're watching a sporting event and there's a graphic on the screen of each's team probability to win, you can thank Pascal). He then applied probability theory to theology. While it's not the same as the rational proofs of God's existence developed by Aquinas and others, Pascal's wager makes a strong case for why it's smart to bet on Christianity.

Pascal considered a pair of dualities that produce four potential outcomes. The first duality is Christianity is true/Christianity is false, and the second is I believe in Jesus/I do not believe in Jesus.

The first possible outcome is that Christianity is true and you believe in Jesus. In this outcome, you gain everything: an eternity of joy in Heaven, sharing in the love of the Trinity. And the cost, in comparison to the reward, is outrageously small. Maybe you have to get up a little earlier on Sunday to go to mass; maybe you can't buy a fancy car because you share your goods with the poor. These are trivial in comparison with the glory and bliss of Heaven.

The second possible outcome is that Christianity is false and you believe in Jesus. In this outcome, you lose very little, since death is the end and that's all there is to it. Maybe you gave that money to the poor for nothing, but Pascal would argue that the cost is relatively light (more on this below).

The third possible outcome is that Christianity is false and you don't believe in Jesus. Aside from a little extra sleep on Sunday, this outcome is basically the same as the second one. You die, and that's it. There's not much to be gained.

The fourth possible outcome is that Christianity is true and you don't believe in Jesus. This outcome is the inverse of the first one: you have lost everything. You have lost an eternity of joy with the Trinity and the saints, and you face the prospect of eternal misery, in return for trifling, ephemeral, material pleasures on earth.

Pascal says the choice is an easy one. By being a Christian, you potentially gain everything, and risk essentially nothing. It's the smartest bet in the world.

Three further points: Pascal argued that even the things you are giving up by becoming a Christian - the extra sleep on Sunday, the fancy car, and so on - are not things that are going to make you happy in the long run, even here on earth. Living a life of virtue - of holy habits - out of love for Christ is the recipe for happiness on earth and the foretaste of Heaven. So you win by following Jesus in the here and now even before reaping the eternal glory of Heaven.

Second, the logic of Pascal's wager applies to the micro decisions of choosing to sin or do good as much as it does to the macro decision of following Jesus or not. With any sinful act, you gain nothing and put everything at risk. (Not that all sins are mortal, but venial sins, if not kept in check by daily examination of conscience and regular confession, can lead to mortal sins.)

Third, I was a little wary of writing this article because following Jesus shouldn't be reduced to a simple economic calculation. (I read Bishop Barron making this point as I was mentally composing this article.) Our goal is to be faithful disciples of Jesus purely out of love for Him. However, sometimes on the way to this perfection we first begin to do good out of some combination of a fear of hell or the reward of Heaven, either of which is preferrable to committing sins. I'm also reminded how frequently Jesus and St. Paul use monetary metaphors to help people understand and strive for the kingdom of God. What Pascal summarized as a theory of probability was expressed by Jesus in single sentence: "For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?" (Mark 8:36)

Pray the Divine Mercy Chaplet every day for the salvation of souls.