Christianity and the Demographic Crisis

Christianity and the Demographic Crisis

by Glenn Forest

       While politicians and elected officials will talk about Climate Change, a Rasmussen report indicated that only 29 percent of respondents considered global warming or climate change to be the biggest issue facing humanity. Many of the demographers and researchers will tell you that our biggest concern should be the Demographic Crisis. The climate warnings about heat waves or a new ice age have failed to materialize but the impact of the Demographic Crisis is already upon us. It manifests itself in a substantially lower birth rate in developed countries, unfilled jobs because of fewer children and workers, fewer people paying into social security or retirement programs and a demographic imbalance with more retired people while there are fewer children and workers. In some areas the local population has become an endangered species.

       Some people point out that the Demographic Crisis is a result of our society moving away from Christian guidelines. Christianity has been very strong on supporting marriage, family, children and life. Some of the people who have done research into the interconnections between social problems have suggested that Christianity may well be more than a religion. If you take the basic principles of Christianity and remove the liturgy, pomp and circumstance, you end up with what many people think is the best guidance for making society work well. We might ask how a Jewish carpenter who walked the earth 2,000 years ago came up with this amazing guidance for our society.

       Now armed with computers and modern technology, the researchers have pointed out that supporting marriage, family, children and life is very positive for society. Married people are less likely to be homeless or live in poverty. They are less likely to commit crimes and are less likely to be the victim of crimes. Children who grow up with a father in the house are less likely to end up in prison. Areas with a high percentage of intact families tend to have low crime rates.

       This also extends to children and birth rates. We can bring up the famous Sermon on the Mount where Jesus Christ said: “The meek shall inherit the earth.” This wording is unfortunately misunderstood by most people. Both Jesus Christ and Moses were called “meek.” This makes no sense to those of us today who equate the word “meek” to someone who is shy and retiring. The problem here is in the translation. In the original Greek version of the Bible, the word is “praus” which does not mean weakness but rather strength brought under control.

       In this context it means strength controlled in the service of God. Since God commanded us to multiply and bring children into the world, it does not take too much to understand that those who have the most children will inherit the earth. Groups that have the most children will dominate the next generation while those without children become an endangered species. This is what is causing the Demographic Crisis. The societies that survive are not the richest, the most modern or the most advanced with the highest technology but those that have children to keep their society going. Hence, having babies is the primary requirement for a society to survive.

Three Concerns

       This reduced birth rate has been noted in developed countries to a greater or lesser extent. It brings up three concerns.

       1. Reduced Population – The most obvious concern is that the birth rate has been declining in developed countries. In some places it is so pronounced that the local population could be called an endangered species.

       2. Demographic Imbalance – The reduced birth rates coupled with increased longevity means that these places have fewer young people but an increasing number of older people and retirees. This leaves us with fewer workers and less support for the expanding number of older folks reaching retirement and looking for additional medical help.

       3. Recession – There is an increasing concern that this demographic imbalance will lead to a global recession. Fewer workers will mean less production while more of our resources will have to be used to take care of the elderly.

The Roman Empire

       Have we seen a Demographic Crisis in the past? Yes, it was a primary reason for the fall of the Roman Empire. In fact, one has to question the coincidence that Jesus Christ came to the earth with his guidance at this same time.

       Caesar Augustus came to power about 27 years prior to the birth of Christ. He made the statement that a strong state required strong families so he started a policy of supporting marriage and larger families. Augustus offered tax breaks for large families and cracked down on abortion. Parents of three or more children received special treatment, property and job promotions while childless couples and single men were looked down upon and penalized. Unmarried people beyond a certain age were not permitted to receive inheritances and legacies. Widows and widowers were required to remarry within a specific period of time.

       Augustus imposed strict marriage laws and changed adultery from an act of indecency to an act of sedition. He promoted children over abortion and issued an edict against some people that seemed to apply to sellers of abortifacients. Abortion itself became a crime in the Roman Empire in the third century. In spite of all of this, the Romans turned away from marriage, family and children and their society fell apart. The people who took over did not have more technology, more wealth or more education. What they had was the ability to support marriage and make babies.

Birth Rates and Numbers

       Moving to today, it can be said that the Demographic Crisis has already appeared in developed countries with some places being impacted more than others. None of this information is secret and is readily available in books, magazines and on the Internet. While birth rates may vary somewhat between reports and articles, the overall trends are very obvious. Some areas such as Asia and Europe appear to be hit hard while other places are already having problems. In dealing with fertility rates you might note that a rate of 2.1 (2.1 children per female) is considered replacement level. Higher rates indicate an increasing population while lower rates show that the population is decreasing from generation to generation.

       Let me start with China because of their past anti-child policy. China’s leader Deng Xiaoping imposed their infamous One-Child law in 1979 because he feared overpopulation. In many cases it was unfortunately carried out with forced abortions and forced sterilizations. Moving forward 30 years, China’s labor force started falling by millions each year. For example, reports indicate that China’s labor force fell by 4.3 million in 2018. Eliminating children only eliminated the young who grew up to be workers and who were positive for the economy.

       If this were not enough, China’s One-Child law prompted many couples to abort baby girls, but keep a boy to better guarantee the financial support of a child in their old age. As a result, China ended up with 34 million more men than women, and hence fewer opportunities for marriage and family, thus giving them an additional demographic imbalance and problem. In 2016, China went to a two-child policy and in 2021 to a three-child policy. This may be a case of too little too late since some researchers are calling China’s population decline “unstoppable.” This is a very interesting example that should be noted by countries that support abortion and fewer children. Since the global economy has relied on China and its inexpensive work force for growth, any reduction in workers may have a negative impact on other economies around the world.

       According to several researchers, Japan is aging faster than any country in history. Since 2011, more adult diapers have been sold in Japan than baby diapers. It is estimated that by the year 2040, there will be one Japanese citizen above the age of 100 for every new baby born. There is a prediction that in 2050, only 28 percent of Japan’s population will be of working age, a situation that may be impossible to deal with. This will seriously restrict business and industry. This is why Japan’s industry is trying to move to robots in order to reduce the need for workers.

       There are similar birth rate problems elsewhere in Asia. Singapore has modern buildings, impressive health care and low crime rates. However, they are in trouble with a fertility rate of only 1.1, which means that the population declines by half with each generation. In spite of some immigration, the average age is now about 40. Officials have programs in place to support families and increase the birth rate.

       Hong Kong has a fertility rate of 1.09, even less than Singapore. The Hong Kong government has been encouraging larger families to deal with their aging population. In Taiwan, the fertility rate is down to 0.9 while South Korea has dropped to 0.92 – both indicating that the population declines by more than half with each generation. South Korea is now investing money supporting families and children.

       While the worst problems of the Demographic Crisis may be in Asia, Europe is not too far behind. Europe has the advantage of immigration to help but many of the immigrants have not assimilated well into the European culture.

       Years of Communist control in Russia encouraged abortion and smaller families. They now have a fertility rate of about 1.2. This is one of the places where immigration has not worked well because many of the immigrants have not assimilated into the Russian culture. The government has offered a huge baby bonus. Spain is facing a declining population with a fertility rate of 1.48. The government has a pro-natal policy promoting births. Germany has a similar fertility rate of 1.4 but survives better because its strong economy attracts immigrants. Even with that, Germany has had to close many schools and its population is starting to age, which will impact its economy.

       Demographers have issued warnings about Italy. The fertility rate in Italy is now down to about 1.4 as younger people put off marriage. Venice is in trouble because it has more tourists than residents. When its population declined below 60,000 Venice held a mock funeral for itself. The number of indigenous Italians is declining at an alarming rate. A Eurostat forecast predicts that in a few decades, indigenous Italians will become a minority in?Italy as people of African or Asian descent will make up more than 50 percent of Italy’s population.

       Is any area of Europe doing well? Ireland has the fastest growing economy in the European Union. A major factor is that Ireland has the youngest population in the European Union and hence has young workers available. Much of this is because?Ireland’s Catholic background has kept abortion illegal until recently.

       Some demographers have pointed out that in the United States, this decline in fertility rates can be traced back to the years of the Great Depression. President Roosevelt created the new Social Security program in 1935 to help workers in their retirement. Prior to this time families tended to be larger so that the children could support mom and dad in their old age. After 1935, people began to depend on Social Security rather than on large families. What everyone forgot was that we still needed the children to grow up into workers who pay into Social Security to support the retired.

       When created, Social Security depended on the young to support the retired. In these years our demographics could be diagrammed like a pyramid with lots of babies at the bottom, workers in the center and a small amount of seniors and retired at the top. Hence, there were several workers to support each retired citizen. With the reduction in fertility but increasing medical technology and longevity, our demographics are now more like a diamond on playing cards. This has few babies at the bottom but an increasing number of seniors and retired folks. As a result we have fewer workers but more retired people and Social Security is running out of money.

       The United States has survived better than many other countries because of immigration. However, by the second generation the immigrants no longer have a higher fertility rate. There are already several indications of demographic problems. We are seeing a shortage of workers in several areas including truck drivers, postal workers and restaurant help. In addition, we see an increased number of medical professionals from other countries. This does not bode well for the future when an increasing percentage of older people will require more medical professionals that may or may not be available.

What to Expect

       What will happen as populations decline and age? Much of this is fairly logical and expected. Things may vary from country to country and some developments may come sooner or later.

       Colleges and universities will experience two problems. One will be a reduction in students making it difficult to fill classrooms and meet expenses. The second will be a need to change programs and classes to better meet the needs of our changing demographics. Much of the knowledge and skills that are needed today will be different in the future as our population declines and ages.

       As the number of children decline and the number of retired folks increase, expect to see fewer school buses but more motor coach tours. There will be less need for teachers and more need for doctors and nurses. School buildings may be converted to senior centers or even retirement centers. Older folks will move into retirement homes and we will have a surplus of houses. Real estate prices will drop because there will be fewer and fewer buyers. In some cases it may be necessary to knock down excess buildings. That is already happening in Europe.

       Economics will shift somewhat based on available workers. China is already in trouble because of its One-Child policy. Those watching the situation expect to see some production shift from China to India where there is a younger work force. For the same reason, countries that have more young people like Ireland, the Philippines and parts of Africa may well see their economy increase.

Doing the Right Thing

       Those who have looked at the research will discover that societies prosper when they encourage the Christian objectives of marriage, families, children and life. Christianity is simply a way to make society work well. One has to question a society that encourages abortion and discourages marriage, families and children when they need more young workers and more people to pay into Social Security.

       Why is it that many countries are taking steps to deal with the Demographic Crisis by increasing fertility and children while others are not? Some people have suggested that the reason may be that the abortion providers support some election campaigns and politicians. Hence the elected officials encourage abortion to please their supporters. But this would mean that our elected officials put money above human life . . . that would be difficult to believe.